The Retail Foot Traffic Shock Markets Aren’t Seeing
An adviser’s goal is to anticipate material risks before markets price them in. A careful analysis of data from 2025 shows the presence of a very material risk.
As year-end earnings from America’s largest brick-and-mortar companies arrive, executives are being asked to forecast 2026 using signals from one of the most unusual consumer years since COVID. Equity markets suggest resilience. The operating data I review daily tells a different story, one that fiduciaries cannot afford to ignore.
For the past five years, The Seaker Group has been analyzing mobile-location data from roughly 500 U.S. shopping destinations: neighborhood retail districts, airports, lifestyle centers, and urban corridors. The dataset measures how often Americans participate in the retail (non-online) economy. For retailers and landlords, foot traffic is the currency that converts into sales, rent, and, ultimately, share price.
From 2021 through 2024, foot traffic to these destinations rose steadily. Pandemic-era savings and pent-up demand produced what many chains described as an artificially high baseline. Through early 2025, we observed some declining weeks, but overall traffic was still running about 20 percent above prior norms.
Suddenly, on June 6, 2025, the pattern broke.
Traffic in the second half of 2025 declined for the first time since 2020. We started looking at the retailer’s fleet of stores on a weekly basis to home in on shopping traffic versus those who visit for non-consumer related reasons and plotted known national events that could have influenced traffic.
Sharp Decline Begins on June 6, 2025
Beginning in June 2025, weekly pedestrian traffic at store levels fell sharply and remained depressed through year-end. Visits dropped 10 percent or more for the balance of the year; a 30-point swing from the gains recorded only months earlier. The decline appeared in large metros and smaller cities alike, across outdoor centers, urban streets, and mixed-use districts.
Operators offered a consistent explanation. Store managers reported that many Hispanic customers were avoiding public spaces because they did not trust how immigration enforcement would be applied. Whether those fears are justified is less relevant to a retailer’s forecasting efforts than the observable result: fewer shoppers, fewer workers, and weaker sales.
The economic exposure is not marginal. Hispanics represent about 20 percent of the U.S. population and roughly 15 percent of total consumer spending. Those figures can mislead analysts into underweighting their importance. Our data indicates the opposite: Hispanic households are more likely than other groups to shop in person, dine out, and use local services. When this cohort pulls back, brick-and-mortar brands feel it first, and the impact quickly transfers to their landlords, many of which are REITs.
While publicly listed REITs account for only 2–3 percent of total U.S. market capitalization, the sector still represents $1.3–$1.4 trillion in enterprise market capitalization, which is heavily dependent on tenant health.
Few executives dispute the need for immigration laws or public safety. The issue for retailers is about tactics and their unintended consequences. Our data shows that current tactics have led to significant suppression of the Hispanic consumer in retail areas. When we consider retailers, restaurants, and REITs together, the data suggests a concern for significant decline in value to retail shopping destinations, unless this portion of the U.S. population is assured of their safety while working, shopping and dining out.
For fiduciaries, the question is: What is the economic return on current tactics, and who bears the cost? A REIT underwriting rents, a retailer planning store openings, or a restaurant chain forecasting labor cannot rely on sentiment. They must translate human behavior into forecasts and adjust capital accordingly.
Executives are understandably cautious about speaking openly. Many fear backlash; from customers, employees, or even government action if they connect earnings weakness to immigration enforcement or other political policies. The result is executive commentary that talks around the issue while voters, stakeholders, and investors remain in the dark about how these policies impact the greater economy. Silence does not reduce risk—it transfers it to shareholders, workers, and the general public.
Policies that restore confidence, state clear enforcement priorities, predictable work authorization, and visible protections for lawful consumers, would align better with retail economic goals than broad tactics that chill and stifle consumer participation.
The physical economy runs on people: shoppers who feel safe entering stores and employees who feel safe reporting to work. When either hesitates, earnings soften long before markets understand why.
The charts accompanying this article show what retailers must confront. After four years of steady gains, 2025 delivered the first material decline in brick-and-mortar visitation since COVID. Ignoring that decline may be politically attractive in the short term, but it is not the type of leadership that our strong economy needs to stay resilient in the long term.